Should I Invest in Bitcoin? Wrong Question.

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Unless you’ve been living under a rock the last few years, you’ve likely heard about the meteoric rise of bitcoin. Valued at around $4,000 per coin a couple of years ago, it soared to over $60,000 per coin in April of this year, and is still over $40,000 per coin as of today.

So should you invest in bitcoin? Well, that’s really not the best question. A better question is, do you need to?

What most investors are getting at when they consider investing in bitcoin is the potential gains it could make--and make no mistake, its gains have been impressive. “Bitcoin to the moon!” was the common meme refrain this year, as prominent investors and celebrities celebrated the digital currency’s rise. Bitcoin has made lots of early investors (including plenty of speculating young people) millionaires nearly overnight. On paper, they are rich. Set for life.

It’s natural to want to jump on that bandwagon, especially when there is so much hype around a new, unusual investment without a lot of history but lots of glam.

But most investors, in my view, don’t need to worry about bitcoin. That’s because nothing has likely changed for their financial needs, especially regarding retirement, since bitcoin became a thing.

What do I mean? Well, consider going through this simple exercise to illustrate. Before making the decision to purchase bitcoin, ask yourself the following questions:

  • Has the monthly income I expect to need in retirement changed?

  • Does my portfolio demand a higher degree of risk for some reason?

  • Is there a strong argument for shifting my investments away from business ownership (stocks), real estate, and business and government IOUs (bonds) toward digital currencies?

For most readers, I suspect the answers to all of these questions are no.

So if your financial goals haven’t changed, then why the need to make a speculative investment? Sticking to a plan of regular contributions to a well-diversified, low-cost stock/bond/real estate portfolio using tax-advantaged accounts like 401ks and Roth IRAs should work just fine, at least that’s what the financial markets’ long history of performance suggests.

If you really want to get on the bitcoin gravy train, or feel like you have the “inside scoop” on how it will continue to rise (Note: you don’t), then my advice is to allocate no more than two or three percent of your total portfolio to it, and mentally prepare to lose it all. That way if the investment goes sour, it won’t totally ruin your financial plans and any gains you make will just be the icing on the cake of an overall well-balanced portfolio.

I could be totally wrong about bitcoin, and crypto currencies in general. They may truly become the “new asset class” and demand a greater presence in most investor portfolios. Time will tell. For now, my plan is to stick to investments that have proven their staying power, and have the greatest potential to help me reach my financial goals.